Stack Articles

Bitcoin Poised to Rally if Fed Holds Off on Rate Hikes

Since the start of the Iran war in late February, US equities are up 9%, Bitcoin is down 1%, and gold is down 20% (see chart). While heavy AI spending has bolstered stocks, Bitcoin and gold have lagged partly due to expectations that the Fed might raise rates to head off inflation. We disagree with those expectations. Our base case is for the Fed to hold off on rate hikes. If we’re right, Bitcoin’s price may catch up with stocks.

Since the start of the Iran war, 1-year Fed rate expectations have risen ~60bp and about half of Fed officials think it may be appropriate to hike rates in 2026.1 The European Central Bank has already raised rates. As non-interest-bearing monetary assets, gold and Bitcoin compete with fiat currencies. Higher (real) interest rates on those currencies raise the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin and gold, which, in turn, can weigh on demand.

We believe that Bitcoin serves a dual-purpose in portfolios: a scarce digital commodity held as a long-term store of value and a public blockchain offering exposure to secular growth in the crypto industry. That makes Bitcoin’s function similar—but not exactly the same—to that of gold and growth equities in portfolios. If so, Bitcoin can act as a portfolio diversifier that, at current levels, appears attractively priced.

Key Takeaway: Bitcoin and gold have underperformed stocks since the start of the Iran war due, in part, to expectations for tighter Fed monetary policy. But if rate hikes become less likely—in line with our base case scenario—Bitcoin could potentially catch up to stocks.

Exhibit 1: Equities, gold, and Bitcoin performance since start of Iran War

Source: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve, Grayscale Investments. Fed rate expectation based on change in 1yr OIS rates from Feb 27, 2026 through June 22, 2026. A basis point (bps) is one hundredth of one percent (e.g. one basis point = 0.01%).

How to Value Digital Assets with Cash Flows?

A recurring question we get from investors considering crypto is, how should we properly value digital assets? At Grayscale, we apply a valuation framework that, at its highest level, analyzes the crypto universe across a spectrum between assets driven by commodity-like factors and those that more closely resemble claims on cash flows.

Crypto assets like Bitcoin, for example, are digital commodities that can be valued based on supply and demand. Other crypto assets, such as Hyperliquid, are directly tied to revenue-producing activity and can be valued with cash flows. At a more detailed level, our framework also offers nuances, revealing a spectrum that runs between the two (Exhibit 1).

My colleague Charlie Perkins details our valuation framework in a new report, Guide to Buying the Dip: Valuing Crypto with Cash Flows. The report focuses on Aave, the leading onchain lending platform. And although we use traditional valuation metrics, such as discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, the report also highlights some unique features of crypto tokens, including:

Token valuing accrual mechanisms: Revenue can flow back to token holders through buybacks (AAVE), token burns (HYPE), rebates (CoW), or staking rewards (CRV).

Unique expenses: Crypto protocols have unique expenses including so-called supply side fees, token emissions, and capital expenditures by their governing DAOs (decentralized autonomous organizations).

Legal structure uncertainties: Owning a token does not typically offer legally enforceable claims to protocol assets. DAOs use a variety of legal structures to align the functioning of the protocol with applicable laws.

As of mid-June, putting all the elements together, we arrive at a one-year price target for the AAVE token of $175—about 130% above current levels. Applying similar methodologies to other cash-flow producing crypto protocols—such as HYPE, for example—suggests that many of them also offer attractive entry points at current valuations.

Key Takeaway: Many crypto assets can be valued with cash flows. After the recent drawdown, we believe many leading tokens look cheap relative to fair value.

Exhibit 1: Crypto assets range from pure commodities to those that are cash flow-driven, with a wide spectrum in between

Anthropic, Bittensor, and the Rise of Decentralized AI

On Friday, June 12, the US government suspended access to Anthropic’s new Fable/Mythos class of models by foreign nationals, citing national security concerns. Anthropic removed access for all users to ensure compliance. This episode highlights the centralized control of frontier AI technology and drives home the need for decentralized alternatives like Bittensor (see Introducing the Artificial Intelligence Crypto Sector).

Access to artificial intelligence is becoming an increasingly important economic resource. Today, a small number of companies in the US and China control the most advanced AI systems. As AI capabilities continue to improve, governments and AI labs will play an increasingly important role in determining who can access these tools and under what conditions.

Bittensor offers an alternative vision for AI based on decentralized principles. It aims to provide permissionless access to AI resources through an open, global, decentralized network. Think of it as Bitcoin for AI: What Bitcoin did for digital money, Bittensor hopes to do for AI.

Following the Anthropic announcement, Bittensor’s token TAO rallied sharply, climbing 30% in just 12 hours (Exhibit 1). The message is simple: The more that centralized players limit access to AI, the more users will demand decentralized alternatives.

Key Takeaway: The suspension of an updated Anthropic AI model highlights the risks of centralized control of AI. We expect demand for decentralized AI, like Bittensor and its TAO token, to continue to rise as investors seek alternatives.

Exhibit 1: The price of TAO rallied as the updated Anthropic AI model was suspended

How TradFi Futures Came to Hyperliquid

Perpetual futures—derivatives with no expiry date—have long been one of crypto's killer products, but until recently, they were only available for crypto assets like BTC and ETH. Hyperliquid's Improvement Proposal 3 (HIP-3) changed that (see our detailed report Hyperliquid Breaks the Mold). Launched in October 2025, the network update enabled permissionless deployment of perpetual futures markets on Hyperliquid's infrastructure, immediately opening the door to equities, commodities, indices, and pre-IPO stocks—all tradeable 24/7, settled in stablecoins, on a fully onchain order book. In March 2026, the first S&P 500 perpetual product ever created landed on Hyperliquid, when S&P Dow Jones Indices licensed the index to an HIP-3 deployer.1

The traction has been remarkable. HIP-3 markets hit peak open interest of $3.2 billion in June 2026, with roughly $200 billion in cumulative volume since inception.2

Remarkably, none of these markets are run by Hyperliquid itself. HIP-3 is a permissionless framework: Any qualified builder can deploy their own perpetual decentralized exchange (DEX) on Hyperliquid's infrastructure. This Hyperliquid platform is less like a stock exchange and more like Amazon Web Services—open infrastructure that lets builders create the products, with the HYPE token capturing value from every trade it hosts.

Key Takeaway: Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 brought commodities, indices, and pre-IPO stocks to the platform. The HYPE token captures value from every trade across these markets.

S&P Dow Jones Indices Licenses S&P 500® to Trade[XYZ] for Perpetual Contracts on Hyperliquid

Artemis, Data as of June 11, 2026

Is Bitcoin Cheap Yet?

With Bitcoin’s price hitting a new cycle low1 under $60,000, many market participants are asking: Is Bitcoin cheap yet? The answer—according to the signal from a range of onchain valuation indicators—is yes, but not as much as previous cyclical lows (e.g., post FTX-collapse). Whether we have hit bottom this time depends on the regulatory outlook and on how large leveraged BTC holders perform in the short run.

As shown in Exhibit 1, a composite onchain valuation indicator (comprising a weighted average of three distinct measures2) suggests that BTC price is well below its long-term average, implying that Bitcoin is undervalued, but not as cheap as previous market bottoms. We believe that this bear market may be shallower than in the past, given a more muted preceding bull market, as well as improvements in market structure from ETP availability, wealth platform deployment, and other types of institutional adoption.

So where do we go from here? We believe investors can focus on two key short-term catalysts: 1) progress on the CLARITY Act in the Senate, and 2) whether levered Bitcoin holders can stabilize their balance sheets. We remain optimistic about CLARITY but prediction markets say it’s a tossup.

That said, we believe that current price levels offer an opportunity for investors with long-term investment horizons to consider dollar-cost averaging their Bitcoin purchases. More tactical traders may want to consider waiting on CLARITY.

Key Takeaway: Onchain metrics suggest Bitcoin is undervalued, but not as cheap as previous cycle lows. Whether we have found the market bottom will depend on upcoming catalysts and the CLARITY Act, but we believe this is a buying opportunity for investors with long-term horizons.

Exhibit 1: Bitcoin valuation indicator below long-run average

Source: Trading view, based on Coinbase USD price and Binance USDT price. Previous cycle low was just above $60,000 on February 6, 2026. Data as of June 8, 2026.

Source: Grayscale using data from Glassnode. Indicator includes three measures weighted using principal components analysis: NUPL: Aggregate unrealized profit/loss of Bitcoin holders relative to onchain cost basis. Price/CVDD: Bitcoin price relative to a long-term valuation benchmark based on coin-days destroyed. Market Cap/Thermo Cap: Bitcoin market value relative to cumulative miner revenue (Thermo Cap).

The MSTR Bitcoin Sale Heard Round the World and What’s Next

Bitcoin (BTC) is facing a new round of volatility sparked, in large part, by the fact that Strategy, the largest digital asset treasury (DAT) in the world, disclosed on June 1 that it had sold 32 Bitcoin.[1] The amount itself is insignificant—Strategy has roughly 840,000 BTC (~$55bn) on its balance sheet. But the shift in approach from one of the world’s largest BTC holders has weighed on market sentiment.

Even more important, we think, is the impact of this recent volatility on the price of “Stretch” (STRC), Strategy’s variable rate preferred equity instrument (Exhibit 1). Stretch is designed to trade at a share price of around $100. It currently pays a dividend of 11.5%. A share price below $100 means that investors require a higher rate of return. Strategy can raise the dividend, but this will increase its cash-flow obligations in the future, potentially warranting more Bitcoin sales, which could result in more downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price.

In a nutshell, Strategy’s levered business model is under pressure, and this has increased the volatility for the BTC market as a whole. Further, we think that Strategy—which historically has been a net buyer of BTC—will have a limited ability to accumulate more tokens at current share prices for both STRC and MSTR.

For the health of the Bitcoin ecosystem over the long run, less BTC on levered DAT balance sheets and more on diversified corporate balance sheets will be a positive, in our view. But other buyers will need to step in for Bitcoin’s price to find a sustainable bottom. Grayscale Research expects a recovery in Bitcoin’s price over the coming months, but BTC may lag other crypto market segments that may benefit more directly from regulatory clarity in the short run.

Key Takeaway: Strategy’s recent sale of a small amount of Bitcoin helped spark a new round of volatility in the BTC market. At current share prices, we think that the company’s ability to accumulate more Bitcoin is limited. Over the long run, however, we believe that more diversified ownership of Bitcoin (and less tokens on levered DAT balance sheets) will help bolster the token price and improve market resilience.

Exhibit 1: Falling share price of STRC may require Strategy to raise dividend

[1] Strategy also sold a small amount of Bitcoin in December 2022. Source: SEC.

Perpetual Futures Are Coming to America

The digital assets industry has started exporting its innovations to traditional finance. Stablecoins were the first export, followed by tokenized assets. The next will be perpetual futures—a type of derivative contract without an expiration date. On Friday, May 29, the CFTC approved the first perpetual futures contract on a US regulated venue. This is a positive step for regulated U.S.-based platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket and we see it as a step toward a future in which decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms specializing in perpetual futures, such as Hyperliquid, are available to US users as well (see our full report Hyperliquid Breaks the Mold).

Traditional futures have an expiration date and often require delivery of the underlying asset. Perpetual futures have no expiration date, and no one ever takes or receives delivery. So how does the price stay connected to the underlying? Perpetual futures use a mechanism called the funding rate—a small periodic payment between longs and shorts. When the futures price trades above the spot price, longs pay shorts; when it trades below, shorts pay longs—the bigger the difference, the larger the payment (Exhibit 1). The funding rate therefore creates an economic incentive to bring the perpetual futures price back toward the underlying market. Perpetual futures, like total return swaps, allow investors to create pure financial exposure to an asset or price index.

Key Takeaway: The CFTC’s approval of US perpetual futures contracts can be seen as a step toward a future in which trading on decentralized exchanges such as Hyperliquid is available to US users.

Exhibit 1: Perpetual futures use a funding rate mechanism to help keep futures prices close to spot

1 The CFTC approved a US perp contract for Kalshi and provided guidance that Coinbase Financial Markets may grant access to US users through a Foreign Futures framework.

How NEAR Got its Groove Back

The NEAR token surged about 115% in May, making it the best performing asset in our Crypto Sectors framework during that time (Exhibit 1). Why? Two words: privacy and AI.

The Near blockchain—which has been around since 2020—has found renewed momentum by developing products and solutions that build at the intersection of privacy and artificial intelligence, as well as an improved supply/demand balance for its tokens. More specifically:

Near “Intents” product/market fit. Near Intents works like an AI agent for blockchain transactions. Users can request virtually any transaction (express their “intent”) without worrying exactly how it will be executed—the Near ecosystem takes care of the details. The tool has been hugely popular with users and has processed more than 25 million swaps worth nearly $20 billion¹ since its launch in Q1 2025.

Private AI agent infrastructure. AI agents need privacy tools as they are integrated more deeply into corporate workflows. To address this, Near has built IronClaw, an AI agent framework integrated with Near AI’s confidential inference infrastructure. This enables AI agents to securely execute tasks while ensuring that underlying data, credentials, and user activity remain private.

Improved NEAR tokenomics. Recent changes have improved the supply/demand balance for NEAR tokens. In October 2025, the Near community agreed to cut the network’s annual inflation rate in half, from 5% to 2.5%.² Then in February 2026, it updated the network’s revenue model to provide continuous distributions denominated in NEAR (which are visible on Near’s revenue dashboard).³

With these building blocks, Near is aiming to create the core infrastructure for agentic commerce—a platform that enables AI agents to seamlessly coordinate economic transactions while underlying users maintain ownership of their data, assets, and identity.

Key Takeaway: The NEAR token had a strong showing in May as crypto markets began to recognize the project’s improved fundamentals. We expect Near to play a key role in AI agent commerce, which could drive more value to its native token.

Exhibit 1: The NEAR token enjoyed strong performance in May

¹ Source: Dune Analytics. Data as of May 28, 2026. Intents can now be fully private.

² Source: Near Foundation.

³ Source: Near.org.

Is Hyperliquid the Next Financial Services Juggernaut?

Hyperliquid is the breakout success story of the modern digital assets industry. It’s a decentralized finance (DeFi) platform that started with a specialization in perpetual futures—a type of non-expiring derivative that originated in crypto but will soon arrive in traditional finance—but is quickly becoming a multi-purpose platform that can rival existing traditional finance rivals.

In a new report, my Grayscale Research colleague Michael Zhao explains how Hyperliquid works and why it’s so popular with users. One key ingredient has been the power of “permissionless innovation.” As an open-architecture network, Hyperliquid encourages third-party builders to deploy new products. As a result, the platform now supports crypto spot trading, futures trading for traditional assets, and outcome markets (akin to prediction markets). When traders want exposure to crude oil on the weekend or to see expectations for the SpaceX IPO price, they turn to Hyperliquid.

The HYPE token powers the network and accrues value from trading fees, which last year totaled around $800 million.1 Based on the platform's financial metrics, the native token looks undervalued vis-a-vis exchange/trading-related comparables in public equity markets (Exhibit 1).

Hyperliquid is not yet available to US users due to regulatory ambiguity around perpetual futures and decentralized exchanges. However, recent comments from regulators and ongoing efforts in Congress could change that and create a meaningful catalyst for further growth.

Key Takeaway: Hyperliquid is a DeFi platform specializing in perpetual futures that is increasingly competing with traditional exchanges. Regulatory clarity in the US can expand access to Hyperliquid to new users and, in our view, help drive value to the HYPE token.

Exhibit 1: Based on the market capitalization of its HYPE token, Hyperliquid trades at a lower multiple than other platforms

Source: Allium. Data as of May 27, 2026

SpaceX Expected to Be Largest Public Company Holding Bitcoin

Elon Musk’s SpaceX plans to go public in early June. According to its latest S-1 statement, the company owns 18,712 Bitcoin (BTC), worth about $1.4 billion1. That would make SpaceX the largest public company holding BTC, based on prediction market estimates of its post-IPO valuation.

There are effectively two types of corporate HODLers (Exhibit 1):

Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs): Strategy is the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin (~850k BTC worth ~$65bn²). It has a relatively small operating business compared to the size of its BTC holdings³. Strategy and other DATs serve primarily as Bitcoin access vehicles for public equity investors.

Diversified Businesses: Many other businesses hold BTC as part of their broader corporate investment strategy, including Tesla, Coinbase, and Block.⁴ In these cases, BTC holdings are typically small compared to the value of the firms’ operating businesses. For SpaceX, its BTC holdings are valued at just ~0.1% of its expected post-IPO market cap.

Over time, we expect to see more diversified businesses holding Bitcoin—i.e., new corporate adopters—and fewer pure-play DATs as these firms diversify their business models. Corporate buyers often hold Bitcoin for the same reason as other investors: because it helps diversify portfolios against fiat currency risks. SpaceX and Tesla were relatively early corporate adopters of Bitcoin, but we expect many other forward-thinking businesses to follow in the coming years.

Key Takeaway: SpaceX is expected to be the largest public company holding Bitcoin. We believe that the number of diversified businesses holding BTC will increase over time, even if we see the number of DATs declining. Altogether, these dynamics could bolster demand for BTC—and underpin the value of BTC over time.

Exhibit 1: Both DATs and Diversified Businesses Hold BTC

1. Source: Bloomberg, Bitcointreasuries.net, Grayscale Investments. Data as of May 22, 2026.

2. Source: Bloomberg, Bitcointreasuries.net, Grayscale Investments. Data as of May 22, 2026.

3. For this exercise, DATs are public companies where the market cap of BTC holdings is > 80% of the market capitalization of the firm.

4. SEC: Tesla 1Q26 10Q Filing; Coinbase 1Q26 10Q Filing; Block 1Q26 10Q Filing